INTERVAL ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH DYNAMICS

Sergii Poznyak; Yurii Kolyada

doi:10.36074/grail-of-science.17.10.2025.019

INTERVAL ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH DYNAMICS

Authors

Sergii Poznyak Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0009-0006-4894-7983
Yurii Kolyada Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2516-9817

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.36074/grail-of-science.17.10.2025.019

Keywords:

economic growth, uncertainty, interval analysis, dynamic Solow model, adaptive modelling

Summary

The scientific novelty of the article lies in the introduction of interval analysis for modelling economic growth, which allows taking into account the ranges of possible values of economic indicators. This approach provides a more realistic reflection of the impact of uncertainty on modelling results. The methodology of interval analysis is presented on the example of the classical Solow model to assess the range of possible growth scenarios instead of fixed forecasts. This approach allows assessing the impact of various sources of uncertainty on economic prospects, providing a wider range of options for analysis. The resulting interval dynamic Solow model was tested on real data for the Ukrainian economy and a sample of countries divided into groups: Ukraine's neighbouring countries, developed countries of Europe, and developed countries of the rest of the world.

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